Our leading indicator of the Italian real business cycle NILO forecasts an exit from the crisis. But it will be very mild.
The NILO neural network forecast that the recovery is far from touching the Italian economy. Moreover, in almost all the OECD economies the recovery of the manufacturing sector is lagging behind the GDP growth, largely inflated by generalized quantitative easing policies.
NILO is a NEW Italian business cycle leading indicator based on a neural network. It is made by 15 independent variables and points to a slump of about 1,5% of the italian GDP in the first quarter 2012